The ‘Arab Spring’ and Its Impact on Israel

...How does Egypt affect Israel? On a number of levels, all negative

– The Israel-Egypt peace treaty might well not be abrogated but it will be largely emptied of content. Can Egypt-Israel peace be assumed in future? No. It might be hoped that the military will restrain conflict because it doesn’t want to get involved in a losing war and fears losing U.S. military aid. But that is a hope that might well be undermined, far more fragile than the last thirty years of the peace treaty being rock-solid even if the bilateral peace remained cool.

The other specific elements in the treaty are the presence of an Israeli embassy in Cairo, which is endangered by potential mob attacks as Egyptian security personnel stand by and don’t interfere, and Israeli tourism in Egypt, which is now too dangerous given the overall collapse in security and the freedom of operation for terrorist groups.

The Muslim Brotherhood says it wants to renegotiate the treaty. Israel has allowed Egypt to send more military units into Sinai in hope they will combat terrorists there. But if Egypt becomes more radical will the authorities will they pull back these forces if Israel asks it to do so?...

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