A Cold War Hot Victory: The Meaning of Assad’s Fall

...A Sunni victory in Syria may very well spare the world from a looming World War which is casting Iran as the new Nazi Germany bent on world military domination. It is as if in 1938, instead of the West's Munich's appeasement, an anti-Hitler Italian revolution crushed the fascist Italian dictator Benito Mussolini, and turned Italy into enemy of Hitler and forward base of operations against Hitler for allied forces. Such a "1938 anti-Hitler Italian" revolution would have likely dealt a catastrophically fatal counter-stroke to Hitler’s world-wide ambitions. In a heartbeat, Hitler’s entire order of battle calculus, which had otherwise enabled Hitler to confidently start World War II and invade Poland, would have been reversed against the Third Reich.

Similarly, the immediate consequence of the liquidation of Bashar Assad and his Shiite Alawite clan from its minority tyrannical and sectarian rule of Syria, would clearly be a catastrophic sui generis defeat for Iran, Syria's Senior Partner in the, until-now, waxing Pan-Shiite crescent.

But that's only the beginning of the fall of Iran's "House of Cards." This Iranian Shiite defeat in Syria will have many second and third order immediate consequences that are already beginning to be felt like an earthquake throughout the entire region.

First, the Iranian "sphere" of Iraq will no longer be an Iranian sure-thing walkover, let alone an Iranian "sphere." With the new Sunni Syria as an Iranian enemy instead of an Iranian puppet-state to the West of Iraq, all of a sudden, Iraq will have the ability to stand up to Iran in the East in ways that Iraq never had before when it was bookended to the West and East by two long-standing Iranian military powerhouses....

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A Cold War Hot Victory: The Meaning of Assad’s Fall

...A Sunni victory in Syria may very well spare the world from a looming World War which is casting Iran as the new Nazi Germany bent on world military domination. It is as if in 1938, instead of the West's Munich's appeasement, an anti-Hitler Italian revolution crushed the fascist Italian dictator Benito Mussolini, and turned Italy into enemy of Hitler and forward base of operations against Hitler for allied forces. Such a "1938 anti-Hitler Italian" revolution would have likely dealt a catastrophically fatal counter-stroke to Hitler’s world-wide ambitions. In a heartbeat, Hitler’s entire order of battle calculus, which had otherwise enabled Hitler to confidently start World War II and invade Poland, would have been reversed against the Third Reich.

Similarly, the immediate consequence of the liquidation of Bashar Assad and his Shiite Alawite clan from its minority tyrannical and sectarian rule of Syria, would clearly be a catastrophic sui generis defeat for Iran, Syria's Senior Partner in the, until-now, waxing Pan-Shiite crescent.

But that's only the beginning of the fall of Iran's "House of Cards." This Iranian Shiite defeat in Syria will have many second and third order immediate consequences that are already beginning to be felt like an earthquake throughout the entire region.

First, the Iranian "sphere" of Iraq will no longer be an Iranian sure-thing walkover, let alone an Iranian "sphere." With the new Sunni Syria as an Iranian enemy instead of an Iranian puppet-state to the West of Iraq, all of a sudden, Iraq will have the ability to stand up to Iran in the East in ways that Iraq never had before when it was bookended to the West and East by two long-standing Iranian military powerhouses....

Leave a Reply

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